The DA’s Office decides whether or not to prosecute felony referrals– formal accusations that a specific person has committed a specific crime. In this section, we consider instances where the DA’s Office has declined to file charges following a felony referral.
In the 1st Judicial District, 20,280 felony referrals were made for White, Black, and Hispanic individuals from January 1, 2018 to June 30, 2022. The DA’s Office declined to file charges for 7.5% (1,530) of these. The Office declined to file charges in 8.0% (134) of felony referrals involving Black individuals, 7.7% (362) involving Hispanic individuals, and 7.4% (1,034) involving White individuals. These represent raw rates: any differences we see could be due to differences in individual or case characteristics.
Outcome: Felony Declination
The results account for differences in individual characteristics.
7.4%
7.6%
7.8%
Predicted Probability of Felony Declination. After controlling for defendant gender, age, and criminal history, the predicted probability of having a felony referral declination was 7.8% for Hispanic individuals, 7.6% for Black individuals, and 7.4% for White individuals. These estimates aim to take into account potential differences in individual characteristics.
- Individuals without a criminal history or a less serious criminal history, as well as younger individuals (under age 18), were more likely to have their felony referral declined.
- Since charge information was not available for declined cases, we were not able to consider charge type or charge severity.
The rest of the analysis considers felonies and misdemeanors filed between January 1, 2018 to June 30, 2022 for individuals identified as White, Black, or Hispanic. Our sample includes 69,389 cases that were disposed of during that time frame. The racial/ethnic breakdown of defendants in our sample was: 69.6% White (48,300), 23.4% Hispanic (16,208), and 7.0% Black (4,881).
Case outcomes. Of the cases in our sample, 71.0% were resolved through plea agreements, 17.6% through dismissal, 5.6% through deferred judgments, 4.6% through a global plea, and 1.3% through a trial. Data on other outcomes, such as diversion, are not available.
Differences Among Defendants. Hispanic and Black individuals were younger than White individuals. White individuals were less likely to have a criminal history. Black individuals were more likely to be charged with a felony. It took longer to resolve cases for Black individuals.
More on differences among defendants
A case is dismissed when the criminal charges are terminated, either by the court or by the prosecutor. There can be several reasons why a case is dismissed, including: a lack of evidence or unavailability of a witness. Cases may also be noted as dismissed if they are referred to, or successfully complete, a diversion program.
Total Dismissed: Our sample included 12,182 cases that were dismissed. Dismissals accounted for 17.6% of case dispositions in the sample. Overall, 19.5% (950) of cases involving Black individuals, 17.9% (8,637) involving White individuals, and 16.0% (2,595) involving Hispanic individuals were dismissed. These represent raw rates: any differences we see could be due to differences in individual or case characteristics.
Outcome: Dismissal (All)
The results account for differences in individual and case characteristics.
17.8%
19.3%
16.3%
Predicted Probability of Dismissal: After controlling for defendant age, gender, criminal history, case length, disposition quarter, charge type, and charge class, the predicted probability of dismissal was 19.3% for Black individuals, 17.8% for White individuals , and 16.3% for Hispanic individuals. These estimates aim to take into account potential differences in individual or case characteristics.
Dismissals and Case Length. The longer a case took, the higher the likelihood of dismissal. Recall that it took longer to resolve cases for Black individuals.
To further explore potential differences across race/ethnicities we zoomed in on dismissals by charge level (misdemeanor and felony) and dismissals by the charge types most frequently dismissed (traffic and person or sex offenses).
Dismissals by Charge Level. More misdemeanor charges were dismissed (21.0%) than felonies (6.2%). For misdemeanors, after controlling for individual and case characteristics the predicted probability of having their case dismissed was 22.6% for Black individuals, 21.3% for White individuals, and 19.5% for Hispanic individuals. A similar pattern was seen for felony charges.
Dismissals for Traffic Offenses. Cases involving traffic charges were more likely to result in a dismissal: 22.1% of these cases were dismissed across races/ethnicities. For the most common driving offense, “Driving Under Restraint/Revoked License,” after controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of dismissal was 19.3% for Black individuals, 18.1% for White individuals, and 16.1% for Hispanic individuals.
For the second most frequent driving offense, "Driving without Insurance," after controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of dismissal was 37.2% for White individuals, 33.0% for Black individuals, and 31.4% for Hispanic individuals.
Dismissals for Person or Sex Offenses. Cases involving person or sex charges were also more likely to result in a dismissal: 21.4% of these cases were dismissed across races/ethnicities. After controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of dismissal was 25.6% for Black individuals, 21.4% for White individuals, and 19.6% for Hispanic individuals.
A deferred judgment is an alternative to traditional prosecution that attempts to address individuals’ needs and to offer alternatives such as useful public service, probation, payment of restitution, or counseling or treatment related to their case. The defendant enters a temporary guilty plea, and, if they comply with the terms, their guilty plea is withdrawn and the case is dismissed.
Total Deferred. Our sample included 3,850 cases that were deferred. Deferrals accounted for a small percent of case dispositions in the sample: 5.6%. Overall, 6.1% (2,923) of cases involving White individuals, 4.6% (222) involving Black individuals, and 4.4% (705) involving Hispanic individuals were deferred. These represent raw rates: any differences we see could be due to differences in individual or case characteristics.
Outcome: Dismissal (All)
The results account for differences in individual and case characteristics.
17.8%
19.3%
16.3%
Predicted Probability of Deferral. After controlling for defendant age, gender, criminal history, charge class, charge type, case length, and disposition quarter, the predicted probability of a case resulting in deferral was 5.9% for White individuals, 4.8% for Hispanic individuals, and 4.1% for Black individuals. These estimates aim to take into account potential differences in individual or case characteristics.
To further explore potential differences across races/ethnicities, we zoomed in on deferrals by charge level (felonies) and deferrals by the charge type most frequently deferred (person or sex offenses).
Deferrals by Charge Level. Cases involving a felony charge were more likely to result in a deferral (7.9%) than cases involving a misdemeanor charge (4.8%). For felonies, after controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of deferral was 8.9% for White individuals, 5.9% for Black individuals, and 5.5% for Hispanic individuals.
Deferrals for Person or Sex Offenses: Cases involving person or sex charges were likely to result in a deferral: 13.3% of these cases were deferred across races/ethnicities. After controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of deferrals was 14.3% for White individuals, 12.0% for Hispanic individuals, and 8.0% for Black individuals.
For the most common person or sex offense, “Assault-3”, after controlling for individual characteristics, the predicted probability of deferral was 20.7% for White individuals, and 16.6% for Hispanic individuals, and 12.4% for Black individuals.
An individual pleads guilty when they admit a factual basis for the plea and acknowledge guilt for a charge, sometimes in exchange for a more lenient sentence.
Total Plead Guilty. Our sample included 49,282 cases that resulted in a guilty plea. Guilty pleas accounted for 71.0% of case dispositions in the sample. Overall, 74.6% (12,092) of cases involving Hispanic individuals, 70.1% (33,833) of cases involving White individuals, and 68.8% (3,357) involving Black individuals resulted in a guilty plea. These represent raw rates: any differences we see could be due to differences in individual or case characteristics.
Outcome: Dismissal (All)
The results account for differences in individual and case characteristics.
17.8%
19.3%
16.3%
Predicted Probability of Pleading Guilty. After controlling for defendant age, gender, criminal history, charge class, charge type, case length, and disposition quarter, the predicted probability of a case resulting in a guilty plea was 74.1% for Hispanic individuals, 70.5% for Black individuals, and 70.0% for White individuals. These estimates aim to take into account potential differences in individual or case characteristics.
Plead Guilty and Case Length. The longer a case took, the lower the likelihood of a case resulting in a guilty plea. Recall that it took longer to resolve cases for Black individuals.
To further explore potential differences across races/ethnicities, we zoomed in on guilty pleas by charge level (misdemeanor and felony) and guilty pleas by the charge types most frequently plead to (DUIs and drug offenses).
Plead Guilty by Charge Level. Cases involving a felony charge were more likely to result in a guilty plea (79.6%) than cases involving a misdemeanor charge (68.5%). For felonies, after controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of a case resulting in a guilty plea was 83.7% for Hispanic individuals, 80.0% for Black individuals, and 78.2% for White individuals. A similar pattern was seen for misdemeanor charges.
Plead Guilty for Driving Under the Influence (DUI) Offenses. Cases involving DUI charges were more likely to result in a guilty plea: 90.5% of these cases resulted in a guilty plea across races/ethnicities. After controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of a guilty plea was 91.9% for Black individuals, 90.5% for White individuals, and 90.5% for Hispanic individuals.
Plead Guilty for Drug Offenses. Cases involving drug charges were also more likely to result in a guilty plea: 79.3% of these cases resulted in a guilty plea across races/ethnicities. After controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of a guilty plea was 81.7% for Hispanic individuals, 80.2% for Black individuals, and 78.5% for White individuals.
After a prosecutor files a case, the top charge in the case may change over time as some charges are dismissed or amended between filing and disposition. In this section, we considered reductions in the severity of charges from initial filing to disposition for cases that resulted in a guilty plea.
Total Charge Reduction. Of the 49,282 cases that resulted in a guilty plea, 33.6% had no charge reduction, 29.9% had a within charge level reduction (either from a more severe felony to a less severe felony, or from a more severe misdemeanor to a less severe misdemeanor), and 36.5% were reduced across charge levels (from a misdemeanor to a petty offense/infraction or from a felony to misdemeanor or petty offense/infraction). Overall, the breakdown across racial/ethnic groups was:
- No reduction: 34.6% White (11,712), 32.2% Hispanic (3,896), and 28.5% Black (955).
- Within charge level reduction: 34.1% Black (1,145), 32.6% Hispanic (3,936), and 28.5% White (9,635).
- Across charge level reduction: 37.4% Black (1,257), 36.9% White (12,486), and 35.2% Hispanic (4,260).
No Charge Reduction
The results account for differences in individual and case characteristics.
33.6%
32.6%
33.9%
Predicted Probability of Charge Reduction. After controlling for defendant age, gender, criminal history, charge class, charge type, case length, disposition quarter, and whether the referred charge was reduced at filing, the predicted probability of no charge reduction was 33.9% for Hispanic individuals, 33.6% for White individuals, and 32.6%for Black individuals.
Similarly, the predicted probability of within charge level reduction was 31.7% for Hispanic individuals, 29.4% for Black individuals, and 29.1% for White individuals.
The predicted probability of across charge level reduction was 38.0% for Black individuals, 37.2% for White individuals, and 34.4%for Hispanic individuals. These estimates aim to take into account potential differences in individual or case characteristics.
To further explore potential differences across races/ethnicities, we zoomed in on charge reduction by the charge types most frequently reduced: traffic, person or sex, and property offenses.
Charge Reduction for Traffic Offenses. After controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of across charge level reduction (reduction from a misdemeanor to a petty offense/infraction or from a felony to misdemeanor or petty offense/infraction) for cases with traffic charges was 49.3% for Black individuals, 48.6% for White individuals, and 44.2% for Hispanic individuals.
Charge Reduction for Person or Sex Offenses. After controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of across charge level reduction (reduction from a misdemeanor to a petty offense/infraction or from a felony to misdemeanor or petty offense/infraction) for cases with person or sex charges was 20.3% for Black individuals, 19.2% White individuals, and 17.1% for Hispanic individuals.
Charge Reduction for Property Offenses. After controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of across charge level reduction (reduction from a misdemeanor to a petty offense/infraction or from a felony to misdemeanor or petty offense/infraction) for cases with property charges was 42.4% for Black individuals, 41.7% for White individuals, and 39.6% for Hispanic individuals.
After an individual is found guilty of a crime, a judge imposes a sentence which may include fees, fines, community service, probation, jail, community corrections, or prison. Prosecutors and defense attorneys can negotiate plea bargains or make sentencing recommendations to the judge, who decides on the ultimate sentence. Incarceration includes any jail sentence (with or without probation), community corrections, or prison.
Total Incarceration. Of the 49,282 cases that resulted in a guilty plea, 17.3% had an incarcerative sentence. Overall, 17.8% (2,156) of cases involving Hispanic individuals, 17.6% (590) involving Black individuals, and 17.1% (5,787) involving White individuals resulted in an incarcerative sentence. These represent raw rates: any differences we see could be due to differences in individual or case characteristics.
No Charge Reduction
The results account for differences in individual and case characteristics.
33.6%
32.6%
33.9%
Predicted Probability of Incarceration. After controlling for defendant age, gender, criminal history, charge class, charge type, case length, and disposition quarter, the predicted probability of an incarcerative sentence was 18.5% for Hispanic individuals, 17.1% for White individuals, and 15.9% for Black individuals. These estimates aim to take into account potential differences in individual or case characteristics.
To further explore potential differences across races/ethnicities, we zoomed in on incarceration by charge level and incarceration by the charge types most frequently incarcerated: property, drug, and person or sex offenses.
Incarceration by Charge Level. Cases involving a conviction for a felony charge were more likely to result in an incarcerative sentence (39.5%) than cases involving a conviction for a misdemeanor charge (9.6%).For felonies, after controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of an incarcerative sentence was 42.2% for Hispanic individuals, 38.8% for White individuals, and 37.2% for Black individuals.
Incarceration for Property Offenses. Cases involving property charges were more likely to result in an incarcerative sentence: 32.3% of these cases resulted in incarceration across races/ethnicities. After controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of an incarcerative sentence was 36.6% for Hispanic individuals, 30.8% for White individuals, and 29.9% for Black individuals.
Incarceration for Drug Offenses. Cases involving drug charges were also more likely to result in an incarcerative sentence: 28.7% of these cases resulted in incarceration across races/ethnicities. After controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of an incarcerative sentence was 31.0% for Hispanic individuals, 28.2% for White individuals, and 25.4% for Black individuals.
Incarceration for Person or Sex Offenses. Similarly, cases involving person or sex charges were also more likely to result in an incarcerative sentence: 28.3% of these cases resulted in incarceration across races/ethnicities. After controlling for individual and case characteristics, the predicted probability of an incarcerative sentence was 28.5% for White individuals, and 28.1% for Hispanic individuals, and 26.6% for Black individuals.
The fair and just treatment of all individuals at each stage of the criminal justice process is of significant importance. We hope this analysis will prompt a conversation about what systemic drivers of racial/ethnic disparities exist and how a DA’s Office might work to address them. We welcome your reflections on the findings and potential next steps.